The AIR Professional File

Fall 2026, Article 185

Institutional Influences on Graduate Student Debt in U.S. Public Higher Education Institutions

Melanie Jenkins-Simpson, Anne Oxenreider, SangAh Oh, M. J. Kim, Megan Bogia

https://doi.org/10.34315/apf1852026

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Abstract

This study examines how institutional finance and structure influence graduate student debt in U.S. public higher education institutions. Using newly available institution-level data from the National Advisory Committee on Institutional Quality and Integrity, the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, and the College Scorecard, we estimate a series of cross-sectional regression models for master’s and doctoral program completers. The models assess relationships between graduate tuition levels, institutional revenue measures, and geographic context.

Results indicate that in-state graduate tuition is the most consistent and significant predictor of higher borrowing among master’s program completers. Geographic differences also emerge, with U.S. institutions in the Midwest and Northeast exhibiting lower borrowing levels relative to those in the South. Absolute levels of institutional revenues per full-time equivalent student are associated with borrowing patterns, whereas proportional revenue composition shows weaker and less-consistent relationships. Models of doctoral borrowing exhibit limited explanatory power, reflecting smaller analytic samples and heterogeneous funding structures, but demonstrate the feasibility of cross-institutional analysis usingemerging federal data.

Overall, our findings underscore the importance of institutional pricing, financial resources, and geographic context in shaping graduate student debt outcomes; findings also highlight directions for future policy and research focused on financial aid transparency, clearer communication of expected borrowing, and affordability in graduate education.

Authors:

  • Melanie Jenkins-Simpson
  • Anne Oxenreider
  • SangAh Oh
  • M. J. Kim
  • Megan Bogia

APF FALL 2026 Institutional Influences on Graduate Student Debt in U.S. Public Higher Education Institutions
Date: 2026
Pages: 33
ISSN: 2155-7535
Price (members/nonmembers): 0/0