The AIR Professional File
Spring 2013, Article 129

A Comparison Study of Return Ration-Based Academic Enrollment Forecasting Models

Xinxing Anna Zan, Sang Won Yoon, Mohammad Khasawneh, Krishnaswami Srihari


Download PDF


The purpose of this paper is to explore differences in the reliabilities of cumu­lative college grade point averages (GPAs), estimated for unweighted and weighted, one-semester, 1-year, 2-year, and 4-year GPAs. Using cumulative GPAs for a freshman class at a major university, we estimate internal consis­tency (coefficient alpha) reliabilities for the several GPAs. We compare these re­liabilities to similar reliabilities found in the literature. Principal findings are that different cumulative GPAs have differ­ent degrees of reliability and that GPA reliability increases at a decreasing rate with number of semesters completed. Understanding these differences in reli­ability has implications for how GPAs are used by institutional researchers in practical as well as theoretical stud­ies. The literature review and methods of the study should be useful to the institutional researcher who under­takes an investigation that involves GPA reliability.

Additional Information


Xinxing Zan, State University of New York at Binghamton

Won Yoon, State University of New York at Binghamton

Mohammad Khasawneh, State University of New York at Binghamton

Krishnaswami Srihari, State University of New York at Binghamton


Copyright © Association for Institutional Research 2019