Publication Details

Abstract

As institutions increasingly focus on improving student retention and graduation rates, understanding factors that influence student success has become crucial. Course failures in students’ first terms have been shown to have strong associations with student retention. While extensive research has analyzed failure rates of individual courses, this study advances the field by using market basket analysis to identify courses that, when taken during the same semester, lead to high probabilities of failure. These insights are not available when courses are analyzed individually.

Using data from 7,466 first-time, full-time freshman students across five cohorts (Fall 2018–Fall 2022) at The University of Texas at San Antonio, we applied the Apriori algorithm to analyze 15,698 course enrollment records with failing grades (F, D–, D, D+). Our findings identified seven high-risk course combinations, with mathematics courses (MAT 1053, MAT 1073) appearing in four combinations and a writing course (WRC 1013) appearing in five combinations. Chi-square analyses revealed that students taking both courses in these combinations had significantly lower first-term retention rates (69.3%–81.0% vs. 83.0%–86.5%) and first-year retention rates (34.6%–54.0% vs. 54.6%–59.6%) compared to students taking only one course from the same combination.

These findings provide actionable insights for academic advisors and curriculum designers to implement targeted intervention strategies, to enhance course scheduling guidance, and to develop support systems for high-risk course combinations. The study demonstrates the value of data-driven approaches in higher education and establishes a methodological framework that other institutions can replicate to improve student success outcomes.

Keywords: freshman students, at-risk course combinations, market basket analysis (MBA)

Authors:

• Fikrewold Bitew
• Khoi To 
  

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